The Inevitability of a Spanish Property Crash

Article by Gregory Butcher

Despite the best efforts of the European Financial Stability Facility it was evident that even before the ink had dried on the Irish bail-out agreement that the contagion could not be contained.

But could Spain’s banks face a similar problem? At present the response from Spain seems to be bullish with the country’s economics minister, Elena Salgado telling CNN that the eurozone’s fourth biggest economy has “absolutely no need” for an Irish style rescue. This was then followed by the extremely brave statement of Snr Zapatero that speculators betting short against Spain would “lose their shirt” and that the government is already doing enough to avert a debt crisis.

Whilst this may seem like an admirable attempt to re-assure and calm the markets it ignores the hard facts that underlie the current situation. Barclays Capital reckons that combined, the Spanish sovereign and Spanish banks need to raise €73bn in the first four months of 2011, some half of it in April 2011 alone.

These figures in isolation don’t seem to point to bail-out territory but when you take into account the fact that Spanish bond yields are at their highest in 8 years it’s clear that more than words are required to attract investors. The speed of the increase in yields from 4% to 5.2% in a month is a dramatic shift for bond markets which usually move in small doses. It means Spain’s bonds are slumping in value and holders are dumping them as they’re worried they won’t get all their money back.

So what is it that is spooking these investors? The country has made big efforts to scale back spending by central government and the national debt this year will be 60% of GDP – not great but not as bad as Ireland’s near 100%. But as Victor Mallet points out in the FT there’s a lack of clarity about the figures as despite the “strict limits” the debts of the country’s 17 autonomous regions (104.8 bn euros) account for over half of the public sector deficit which makes it much more difficult for the central government to impose reforms. “Spanish sovereign risk is increasingly at the sub-national level” says Nicholas Spiro of Spiro Sovereign Strategy and several regions including Catalonia and Madrid have such financial difficulties that a recovery seems unlikely given the economic stagnation and sluggish growth forecast for Spain.

It’s also in the regions where the problems for the banking systems lie. Spain experienced a huge property bubble, accompanied by a huge rise in private sector debt, and fell into recession when that bubble burst. But whilst the larger national banks such as Santander were well capitalised (and even in a position to acquire troubled foreign firms), in the regions the cajas (regional savings banks) have accumulated vast exposure to the construction and development sector. When the big two banks (BBVA and Santander) put the brakes on in 2006-07, the cajas continued lending more keenly, tapping wholesale debt markets to fund themselves. That alone makes them higher risk. But the savings banks also supplied about half of the €318 billion borrowed by Spain’s property developers. These loans now represent about a fifth of the cajas’ assets, according to Santiago López Díaz, an analyst at Credit Suisse. They are deteriorating fast.

So now the cajas are undoubtedly facing the grimmest outlook for sometime in what is already an extremely volatile situation. The results of the stress tests earlier in 2010 were supposed to have calmed fears but investigation revealed that much of the supposed liquidity in the regional banks was due simply to the over-valuation of much of their repossessed housing stock. A recent survey by the Economist estimated that Spanish property is still over-valued by 47.6% which suggests that a painful correction is on the way.Indeed events of the last few days have only made this more likely. New accounting rules by the Bank of Spain will force lenders to dump depreciating assets, according to Bloomberg News. Under the changes, banks must now make provision for bad loans after just 12 months rather than the current 72 months, which will provide a strong incentive for lenders to sell properties quicker. The rules also force banks to value properties more realistically, which gives them a further incentive to sell.

Pisos Embargados de Bancos estimates that there are around 100,000 bank owned properties currently on the market but they estimate that this figure will rise to 300,000 next year.

Obviously this change in provisions has been designed to force banks to raise capital through sales of their property assets which would also provide a boost to domestic demand. The hope being that this income will negate the need for extensive bail-outs. However the release of this vast stock of property onto the market will drive prices down sharply and Fernando Rodriguez from Madrid-based property adviser RR de Acuna & Ass predicts a further 20% fall next year.The danger here is that the property stock valuation is the only thing that gives the balance sheets of the cajas any respectability. Decrease these assets by 20% and many will be looking extremely vulnerable – and with no chance of borrowing on a nervous bond market the only solution will be to seek European aid.

Until now the response from the banks has been distinctly Canute-like, vaingloriously attempting to turn back the tide of falling prices by using their market power to artificially inflate prices.

The method which the banks use to have higher than open market price accepted as the appraisal benchmark for valuations of their property assets, starts with how the banks dispose of the homes they are currently repossessing. The banks are using subsidised mortgages which typically also include 100% mortgages, non-payment windows, extended terms (even up to 50 years) and interest free options to attract buyers. These mortgage deals are being granted at a subsidised interest rate totally at odds with market rates being offered for deposits. Typically, these subsidised mortgage rates are offered at just 0.3-0.5% over Euribor, whilst deposit rates offered by the same financial institutions are currently around 4%.

The purpose of these subsidised mortgages is to encourage the purchase of bank repossessed homes at valuations that are higher than current open market prices. Indeed they are available only in conjunction with repossessed homes held by the bank offering the mortgage, whereas privately sold homes in the open market must apply through the usual channels for normal mortgage deals, which are typically 65% of value, 25 years and normal market interest rates.

Anecdotal examples show properties with a subsidised mortgage are between 25-40% above the open market price. In October 2010 in El Rosario, Marbella, a 2000m2, frontline golf villa was sold by CAM Bank which had an asking price on their website of 1.3 million euro but were, in reality, looking for offers of 750,000 euros – however the final sales price was 601,000 euros – a difference of 54%. Another example in Santa Maria Village, Elviria was advertised by a bank at 269,500 euros but sold at 188,400 euros – a difference of 31.1%.

In effect the valuations of the bank’s property assets are supported by the banks own sales data of their repossessed homes, which are artificially inflated prices by the provision of subsidised mortgages. The result is a self perpetuating cycle where property values are kept high which in turn supports the bank’s approach to provisions against non-performing loans being required only at a low level.

But with 1.4 million homes to sell this response looks remarkably inadequate, indeed many investors point to this practice as being one of the main reasons it’s impossible to judge the real price of property in Spain today – as it over-inflates the official figures so the real price of Spanish property is never reliably reported. 2011 may be the year we finally find out.

About the Author

Gregory Butcher, is CEO of the privately owned Gibraltar property investment company Fairhomes. Gregory’s modus operandi has been to buy assets at a discount in order to maximise gains, he follows crashes and has profited from being able to accurately read the property cycle.

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Tags: Crash, Inevitability, property, Spanish